Possible scenario
Strategic Funding Scale-Up
25% Chance
The credit model gains bipartisan support as lawmakers connect supplier finance to China-related mineral and component risks. A larger authorization allows the Pentagon and SBA to prioritize critical inputs such as rare-earth magnets, gallium substitutes, advanced packaging, and energetics.
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.9%
- Non-Energy Materials +0.7%
- Technology +0.5%
Tickers
- MP+1.5%
- WOLF+1.0%
- LMT+0.4%
- +0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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