Possible scenario
Wider Catalonia Emergency
25% Chance
Rain continues across parts of Catalonia, turning the Barcelona event into a broader regional emergency. The main risks are additional casualties, rail and road closures, tourism cancellations, and a larger insured-loss estimate, though the shock remains far below a national financial crisis.
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.8%
- Finance -0.5%
- Utilities -0.4%
- Industrials -0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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