Possible scenario
Russian Retaliation Broadens
18% Chance
Moscow responds to the FP-7 debut and FP-9 threat with larger missile, drone, cyber, and sabotage operations against Ukrainian infrastructure and logistics routes. The key uncertainty is whether retaliation remains inside Ukraine or brushes against NATO-linked territory and supply chains.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +2.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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