Possible scenario
Deep-Strike Campaign Expands
28% Chance
Ukraine moves quickly from the FP-7 debut to FP-9 operational use, targeting Russian military, intelligence, or defense-industrial sites within Moscow range. This would validate Kyiv's new domestic strike capacity and increase pressure on Russian air defenses and command networks.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- Bitcoin Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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