Possible scenario
Deal Modified, Not Killed
38% Chance
Trump keeps the core diesel-supply plan alive but narrows it to reduce political and sanctions risk. This is the most likely path because it addresses the refining crunch while giving Senate Republicans and Democrats a face-saving concession.
Initial impacts
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.1%
- Industrials +0.1%
Tickers
- VLO-0.6%
- -0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.