Possible scenario
Deal Fully Scrapped
30% Chance
The White House reverses course and says no Russian diesel will enter under the announced arrangement. This outcome is plausible because the policy collides directly with the 2022 import ban and the 2025 sanctions expansion.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.9%
- Industrials -0.5%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.