Possible scenario
Sanctions Path Hardens
20% Chance
If officials conclude Tehran is using talks mainly to buy time, Washington may intensify enforcement against the shadow-fleet network sanctioned earlier in October. That would support crude prices by increasing uncertainty around Iranian exports and tanker availability.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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