Possible scenario
Interim Deal Emerges
30% Chance
A narrow interim arrangement remains plausible because both governments have incentives to reduce escalation risk without declaring a comprehensive nuclear accord. The likely version would combine limited sanctions relief, monitored funds access, and a temporary freeze on the most sensitive nuclear steps.
Initial impacts
- Oil prices Down
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -1.9%
- Consumer Services +1.0%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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