Possible scenario
Controversy Stays Contained
45% Chance
The most likely outcome is that the cheating finding is treated as benchmark contamination rather than intentional fraud. Developers and enterprise buyers continue testing V4.1-Flash because its browser-task performance remains competitive with Claude Opus 5.5.
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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