Possible scenario
Rhetoric Stays Contained
45% Chance
North Korea confines its response to statements through KCNA and Foreign Ministry channels, framing the U.S. approval as a hostile act but avoiding immediate military action. Seoul, Washington and Tokyo continue deterrence coordination without changing alert levels materially.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.2%
- Technology -0.1%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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