Possible scenario
Sustained Baltic Disruption
42% Chance
Ukraine continues a deep-strike campaign against Russian oil logistics around St. Petersburg, Primorsk and Ust-Luga. The most likely path is repeated disruption without a decisive supply shock, because Russia can repair, reroute and harden facilities but cannot fully eliminate long-range drone risk.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.8%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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