Possible scenario
Russian Retaliation Escalates
26% Chance
Russia responds to the St. Petersburg-area raid with a larger retaliatory campaign rather than only defensive measures. The most plausible retaliation remains strikes on Ukrainian power, gas and transport infrastructure, while a smaller but higher-impact path involves spillover into NATO-adjacent airspace or shipping lanes.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.5%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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