Possible scenario
Russian Adaptation Works
22% Chance
Russia moves quickly to protect Baltic energy assets through additional air defense, electronic warfare and logistical rerouting. This reduces the near-term market impact even if Ukraine retains the ability to threaten energy infrastructure deeper inside Russia.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +0.2%
- Energy -0.1%
- Industrials -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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