Possible scenario
Democratic Surge Holds
40% Chance
The D+27 first-day margin proves to be an early sign of real Democratic enthusiasm rather than a one-day anomaly. Josh Turek consolidates gains in Polk, Johnson, Linn and Story counties, keeping the Iowa Senate race at least a tossup and possibly leaning Democratic.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.1%
- Utilities +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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