Possible scenario
DOJ Scrutiny Intensifies
25% Chance
The DOJ uses the PeckShield trace as fresh evidence in its probe of whether Binance is complying with its 2023 settlement obligations. The key risk is not the $3.89 million amount itself, but whether Binance failed to detect or act on suspicious flows quickly enough.
Initial impacts
- Bitcoin Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.3%
- Technology -0.1%
Tickers
- COIN+1.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.