Possible scenario
Courts Narrow Crackdown
35% Chance
Hospitals, medical schools, and research universities quickly sue in federal court, arguing the expanded restrictions violate the Administrative Procedure Act and exceed statutory authority. Given the June 2026 ruling against the earlier H-1B fee, courts are likely to grant at least partial relief.
Secondary impacts
- Healthcare +0.9%
- Technology +0.5%
- Business Services +0.3%
Tickers
- TMO+1.3%
- THC+1.0%
- HCA+1.0%
- +0.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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