Possible scenario
Race Becomes Disputed
15% Chance
The apparent 4-point Jackson lead collapses into a margin-of-error finish, with ranked-choice voting and absentee ballots becoming decisive. This creates political uncertainty but only small market effects unless Senate control hinges on the seat.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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