Possible scenario
Jackson Maintains Lead
45% Chance
Troy Jackson's 50%-46% polling edge proves durable as abortion, the bribery story, and Barack Obama's endorsement keep Democratic turnout high. Susan Collins narrows the gap with independents but cannot fully repair the damage from renewed scrutiny of her record and the late-campaign ethics narrative.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.2%
- Healthcare -0.2%
- Utilities +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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