Possible scenario
Collins Recovers Ground
30% Chance
Collins uses her incumbent brand, crossover appeal, and national Republican resources to pull undecided voters back into her column. The race remains competitive, but the poll becomes a high-water mark for Jackson rather than a stable lead.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.2%
- Utilities -0.1%
- Healthcare +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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