Possible scenario
U.S. prosecution advances
25% Chance
The U.S. proceeds with criminal charges against Maduro despite Russian objections. Moscow and Caracas reject the process as illegitimate, but their near-term response remains largely political because Maduro no longer controls the full Venezuelan state apparatus.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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