Possible scenario
Contained diplomatic standoff
45% Chance
Russia maintains its demand for Nicolás Maduro's release but confines its response to UN statements, bilateral protests, and media messaging. Washington treats the matter as a law-enforcement case, while Venezuela's loyalist authorities avoid actions that would endanger oil revenue or invite new sanctions.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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