Possible scenario
Limited Kharg Strike
38% Chance
Trump authorizes a focused attack on Kharg Island or associated export-control infrastructure, seeking to disable Iran's main oil-loading capability without striking leadership targets. Given the blockade already halted exports and tanker attacks are at a war high, a limited kinetic move is the most likely escalation path.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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