Possible scenario
Hormuz Escalation
22% Chance
Iran treats a U.S. plan to hit its main export hub as an existential economic threat and expands retaliation before or after the strike. This scenario is less likely than a limited exchange but remains substantial because tanker attacks have already reached a war high.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +5.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-3.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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