Possible scenario
Coercive Delay
27% Chance
The administration uses the strike plan as coercive leverage while moving naval and air assets closer to the Gulf. This path is plausible because the U.S. blockade has already stopped Iranian exports, giving Washington time to threaten destruction of infrastructure without immediately acting.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.3%
- Consumer Services +0.3%
- Energy +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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