Possible scenario
Fragile Calm Persists
28% Chance
The hostage issue is no longer the central operational driver, but Israeli politics remains dominated by accountability for October 7 and the war. Gaza stays tense, with intermittent ceasefire violations and domestic disputes over inquiries, elections and military doctrine.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.2%
- Industrials +0.1%
- Finance -0.1%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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