Possible scenario
Outside Money Stabilizes
45% Chance
Senate Leadership Fund, MAGA Inc. and other Republican-aligned groups keep Paxton competitive despite his campaign's own ad spending lag. The most likely outcome is that outside spending compensates for the campaign's weaker media pace and preserves a narrow GOP edge in Texas.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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