Possible scenario
Persistent Maritime Pressure
30% Chance
Iran and the United States avoid a direct exchange of fire but continue coercive maritime operations around Hormuz. The IMO dispute becomes part of a broader contest over tanker inspections, drone surveillance, and escort rules.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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