Possible scenario
Diplomatic Containment
35% Chance
Washington and Tehran keep the mariner-harassment dispute in diplomatic channels, using Oman, Qatar, and the IMO to reduce the risk of further incidents. Both sides continue public accusations, but naval commanders avoid direct contact after the drone injury episode.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.5%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.4%
- Industrials +0.3%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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