Possible scenario
Curfew Contains Fallout
42% Chance
The most likely path is that U.S. Forces Japan keeps the curfew and alcohol ban in place while Tokyo and Washington emphasize cooperation with Japanese prosecutors. Protests continue for several days but remain orderly and do not materially disrupt the alliance or markets.
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.2%
- Consumer Services +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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