Possible scenario
Supply Risks Intensify
20% Chance
Japan's call is interpreted as a warning that the physical oil market remains fragile after the Hormuz shipping disruption and OPEC+'s quota freeze. If additional transport or producer-side constraints appear, markets price a higher geopolitical risk premium.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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