Possible scenario
Saudi Retaliates Alone
25% Chance
Saudi Arabia conducts its own strikes against Houthi missile and drone infrastructure in Yemen, using US intelligence but not US aircraft. The operation is calibrated to restore deterrence while avoiding a direct break with Washington or an open conflict with Iran.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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