Possible scenario
Diplomatic Pause
20% Chance
Oman, the United Nations, and possibly China or Iran push for a narrow de-escalation channel focused on Saudi infrastructure and Red Sea transit. The US refusal to strike creates pressure for Riyadh to accept a temporary diplomatic off-ramp.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Oil prices Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy -1.4%
- Consumer Services +1.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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