Possible scenario
Fiscal Battles Dominate
26% Chance
The reelection result leaves Lula with legitimacy but not a congressional blank check. Budget exemptions, welfare spending, tax reform implementation and public investment become the main source of tension between the Palácio do Planalto and Congress.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.5%
- Non-Energy Materials -0.4%
- Energy -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.