Possible scenario
Continuity Coalition Governs
44% Chance
Lula treats the runoff victory over Flávio Bolsonaro as a mandate for continuity but avoids a confrontational opening. Fernando Haddad, Geraldo Alckmin and allied congressional leaders work to preserve a centrist economic arrangement while expanding social spending at the margin.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.5%
- Non-Energy Materials +0.2%
- Energy +0.2%
- Consumer Non-Cyclicals +0.1%
- Industrials +0.1%
Tickers
- JBS+0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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