Possible scenario
Bolsonaro Camp Contests
18% Chance
Flávio Bolsonaro and allies challenge parts of the vote or mobilize supporters, drawing on the political memory of the January 2023 Brasília attacks. Brazil's electoral court and security forces are likely to contain the dispute, but the near-term risk premium rises if protests spread.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.5%
- Non-Energy Materials -0.3%
- Energy -0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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