Possible scenario
Prop 40 Defeated
25% Chance
The opposition campaign led by wealthy donors, business groups, and anti-tax organizations succeeds in framing the measure as economically risky and legally uncertain. California may still pursue some residency audits, but the 5% wealth tax itself fails at the ballot box.
Secondary impacts
- Technology +0.4%
- Finance +0.3%
- Business Services -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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