Possible scenario
Enforcement Gains Momentum
32% Chance
California's Franchise Tax Board expands domicile and residency audits against billionaires who moved assets or households to Florida, Nevada, Texas, and Wyoming before the wealth-tax vote. The enforcement push helps supporters argue that Prop 40 is collectible despite high-profile exits.
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.4%
- Finance -0.3%
- Business Services +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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