Possible scenario
Courts Limit Enforcement
28% Chance
Billionaires, family offices, and anti-tax groups challenge California's pre-election enforcement posture on due-process, commerce-clause, and state constitutional grounds. Courts allow ordinary residency audits but restrict aggressive wealth-tax-related demands before voters approve the measure.
Secondary impacts
- Technology +0.3%
- Finance +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.