Possible scenario
Shake-Up Stays Contained
45% Chance
Trump uses the firing threat to force a cleanup of outside work rather than remove his core midterm team. The RNC and Trump-aligned committees impose new disclosure rules around Bosnia-related consulting while keeping the 2026 strategy centered on Trump.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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