Possible scenario
Bosnia Inquiry Widens
20% Chance
The controversy broadens from internal campaign discipline to questions about foreign-agent rules, Milorad Dodik's SNSD, and the $2.3 billion Bosnia pledge. This becomes the highest-uncertainty path because it ties U.S. election operations to foreign political and investment activity.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Business Services -0.3%
- Finance -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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