Possible scenario
Adviser Purge Proceeds
25% Chance
Trump follows through on the threat and removes one or more senior midterm advisers. The change creates short-term uncertainty for Republican campaign planning, especially where candidate recruitment and ad reservations are already underway.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.2%
- Business Services -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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