Possible scenario
Controls Without Collapse
45% Chance
The most likely path is a managed response: Minneapolis officials tighten oversight of police-alternative contracts without abandoning the broader post-George Floyd public-safety strategy. The City Auditor, Office of Community Safety, and City Council use the audit to require documentation, conflict checks, and performance metrics before 2027 funding is released.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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