Possible scenario
US Indirect Re-Engagement
18% Chance
The Biden administration or its successor avoids reversing the Sept. 30 withdrawal but increases indirect support to Iraq and the KRG. Washington leans on intelligence sharing, sanctions, and regional basing rather than returning US troops to Erbil.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.4%
- Energy +0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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