Possible scenario
Iraq Security Vacuum
25% Chance
The attack exposes a larger security gap after the US departure from Erbil Air Base. Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani faces pressure from the KRG to deter Iran while also managing Iran-aligned factions inside Iraq.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.4%
- Finance -0.2%
- Consumer Cyclicals
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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