Possible scenario
Contained Iranian Pressure
45% Chance
Iran uses the post-withdrawal vacuum to signal deterrence against Kurdish-Iranian opposition groups and the KRG, but avoids actions that would force a major Iraqi or US response. Baghdad, Erbil, and Tehran trade statements while Iraqi federal forces increase visible security coordination around Erbil.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- Market volatility Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.1%
- Consumer Services -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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