Possible scenario
Federal Coordination Grows
20% Chance
The Indiana inquiry becomes part of a broader post-arrest review involving the DOJ, Treasury, and state attorneys general. Federal coordination would make the inquiry more durable, though still unlikely to trigger broad market shocks absent major sanctions or violence.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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