Possible scenario
Republicans Rebound Late
33% Chance
Republicans again rely on a larger Election Day electorate and stronger rural turnout to offset Democratic early voting. The pattern resembles prior North Carolina cycles where Democrats led early but Republicans narrowed or overcame the gap once all vote modes were counted.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Market volatility Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.2%
- Finance +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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