Possible scenario
Registration Misleads
15% Chance
The D+28.5 registration figure overstates Democratic strength because party registration does not fully predict vote choice in North Carolina. Unaffiliated voters and older Republican-leaning Democrats make the partisan composition less favorable to Democrats than the headline suggests.
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.1%
- Finance +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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