Possible scenario
Democrats Bank Lead
42% Chance
The D+28.5 registration lead in the first 501,000 early votes proves to be a real banking advantage rather than only front-loaded participation. Democrats enter Election Day with a measurable cushion in Wake, Mecklenburg, Durham, Guilford, and Buncombe counties.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Healthcare -0.2%
- Technology -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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