Possible scenario
Congress Forces Restraint
35% Chance
The school casualty report intensifies bipartisan pressure after the September Senate vote to limit Iran war powers. The White House and Pentagon face demands for targeting reviews, classified briefings, and a temporary operational pause without fully ending the campaign.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
- Market volatility Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.7%
- Consumer Services +0.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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